Data room · built 12 Aug, 11:36
What the model expects
Every number on this page comes from the same engine that marks a squad, projected over the opening 15 gameweeks. Published before the matches, so it can be checked against them afterwards — the scorecard is here.
| # | Club | Next 15 | Scores | Concedes | Net / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARS | COVavlCHEsunbhaLEEnfoEVElivHULnewMCIbretotBOU | 25.3 | 14.4 | +0.73 |
| 2 | MCI | BOUcryCOVmunSUNlivIPSavlBHAnfoFULarsLEEbreCHE | 27.0 | 18.2 | +0.59 |
| 3 | MUN | hulIPSeveMCIfulTOTleeBOUcheAVLlivBREnewCOVcry | 24.7 | 19.9 | +0.31 |
| 4 | LIV | newNFOipsFULbouMCIbreBHAARScryMUNeveSUNcheLEE | 24.4 | 20.3 | +0.27 |
| 5 | NEW | LIVtotBOUleeHULcovAVLcryEVEfulARSbhaMUNSUNips | 23.5 | 20.0 | +0.23 |
| 6 | CHE | fulBHAarsHULbreBOUeveTOTMUNsunLEEnfoCRYLIVmci | 23.5 | 20.8 | +0.18 |
| 7 | AVL | bhaARShulNFOtotBREnewMCIFULmunSUNipsEVECRYcov | 21.8 | 19.9 | +0.13 |
| 8 | BOU | mciEVEnewBRELIVcheSUNmunLEEipsNFOfulBHAHULars | 23.3 | 21.4 | +0.13 |
| 9 | BHA | AVLcheLEEcovARSsunCRYlivmciBREhulNEWbounfoEVE | 22.1 | 20.2 | +0.12 |
| 10 | BRE | TOTleeSUNbouCHEavlLIVhulNFObhaEVEmunARSMCIful | 22.5 | 21.6 | +0.06 |
| 11 | CRY | eveMCIfulIPSleeNFObhaNEWtotLIVcovHULcheavlMUN | 21.7 | 20.8 | +0.06 |
| 12 | FUL | CHEsunCRYlivMUNipsHULcovavlNEWmciBOUtoteveBRE | 20.3 | 20.4 | 0.00 |
| 13 | NFO | LEElivTOTavlCOVcryARSipsbreMCIbouCHEhulBHAsun | 20.0 | 21.0 | -0.06 |
| 14 | TOT | breNEWnfoEVEAVLmunCOVcheCRYleeIPSsunFULARShul | 19.8 | 21.1 | -0.08 |
| 15 | EVE | CRYbouMUNtotIPShulCHEarsnewCOVbreLIVavlFULbha | 19.4 | 20.9 | -0.10 |
| 16 | LEE | nfoBREbhaNEWCRYarsMUNsunbouTOTcheCOVmciIPSliv | 20.8 | 22.4 | -0.10 |
| 17 | SUN | ipsFULbreARSmciBHAbouLEEcovCHEavlTOTlivnewNFO | 17.4 | 21.6 | -0.28 |
| 18 | IPS | SUNmunLIVcryeveFULmciNFOhulBOUtotAVLcovleeNEW | 18.1 | 24.9 | -0.46 |
| 19 | COV | arsHULmciBHAnfoNEWtotFULSUNeveCRYleeIPSmunAVL | 14.6 | 27.5 | -0.86 |
| 20 | HUL | MUNcovAVLchenewEVEfulBREIPSarsBHAcryNFObouTOT | 14.7 | 27.8 | -0.88 |
UPPERCASE is home, lowercase away. “Scores” and “concedes” are the goals our model expects across the whole run — so a club can have an easy set of fixtures for its forwards and a hard one for its defenders, which one blended difficulty number would hide.
Top projected points — first 15 gameweeks
GKP
- 1Raya ARS£6.0 · 60
- 2Kelleher BRE£5.0 · 57
- 3Lammens MUN£5.0 · 53
- 4Sels NFO£5.0 · 53
- 5Pope NEW£5.0 · 53
- 6Martinez AVL£5.0 · 52
- 7Leno FUL£4.5 · 52
- 8Verbruggen BHA£4.5 · 51
- 9Donnarumma MCI£5.5 · 51
- 10Henderson CRY£5.0 · 51
DEF
- 1Gabriel ARS£8.0 · 68
- 2Virgil LIV£6.5 · 64
- 3Truffert BOU£5.5 · 61
- 4Tarkowski EVE£6.0 · 61
- 5Botman NEW£5.0 · 54
- 6Muñoz CRY£5.5 · 53
- 7Gvardiol MCI£5.5 · 53
- 8Van den Berg BRE£5.0 · 53
- 9White ARS£5.5 · 53
- 10N.Williams NFO£5.0 · 52
MID
- 1B.Fernandes MUN£12.0 · 74
- 2Gibbs-White NFO£8.0 · 67
- 3E.Le Fée SUN£6.0 · 65
- 4Mbeumo MUN£8.0 · 65
- 5Tavernier BOU£6.0 · 62
- 6Szoboszlai LIV£7.0 · 62
- 7Wirtz LIV£7.5 · 60
- 8Stach LEE£6.0 · 59
- 9Palmer CHE£9.5 · 59
- 10O.Dango BRE£6.5 · 59
FWD
- 1Haaland MCI£15.5 · 75
- 2Watkins AVL£8.0 · 72
- 3Osula NEW£6.0 · 66
- 4Thiago BRE£8.0 · 61
- 5João Pedro CHE£7.5 · 61
- 6Isak LIV£9.0 · 60
- 7Gyökeres ARS£7.5 · 58
- 8Calvert-Lewin LEE£6.0 · 56
- 9Evanilson BOU£6.0 · 53
- 10Wood NFO£6.0 · 52
Ten per position, free. The full board, every player’s working, and what any of it means for YOUR fifteen comes with HQ Pro.
Still to come
A predicted final table — points, title odds, top four, relegation — needs all 38 gameweeks simulated rather than the 15 behind this page. It is being built; publishing a season prediction off a 15-gameweek run would be exactly the kind of number this site exists not to print.
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