Data room · built 12 Aug, 11:36
What the model expects
Every number on this page comes from the same engine that marks a squad, projected over the opening 15 gameweeks. Published before the matches, so it can be checked against them afterwards — the scorecard is here.
| # | Club | Next 5 | Scores | Concedes | Net / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MCI | BOUcryCOVmunSUN | 9.6 | 5.7 | +0.79 |
| 2 | ARS | COVavlCHEsunbha | 8.5 | 4.6 | +0.78 |
| 3 | MUN | hulIPSeveMCIful | 8.3 | 6.2 | +0.41 |
| 4 | LIV | newNFOipsFULbou | 8.4 | 6.6 | +0.36 |
| 5 | NEW | LIVtotBOUleeHUL | 8.3 | 6.7 | +0.32 |
| 6 | BHA | AVLcheLEEcovARS | 7.4 | 6.5 | +0.19 |
| 7 | BRE | TOTleeSUNbouCHE | 7.8 | 7.0 | +0.17 |
| 8 | CHE | fulBHAarsHULbre | 7.8 | 7.0 | +0.16 |
| 9 | NFO | LEElivTOTavlCOV | 7.2 | 6.6 | +0.11 |
| 10 | AVL | bhaARShulNFOtot | 6.9 | 6.7 | +0.05 |
| 11 | CRY | eveMCIfulIPSlee | 7.0 | 7.0 | -0.01 |
| 12 | EVE | CRYbouMUNtotIPS | 6.7 | 6.8 | -0.01 |
| 13 | BOU | mciEVEnewBRELIV | 7.6 | 7.7 | -0.02 |
| 14 | LEE | nfoBREbhaNEWCRY | 7.0 | 7.3 | -0.05 |
| 15 | FUL | CHEsunCRYlivMUN | 6.5 | 7.1 | -0.11 |
| 16 | TOT | breNEWnfoEVEAVL | 6.5 | 7.2 | -0.16 |
| 17 | SUN | ipsFULbreARSmci | 5.4 | 7.5 | -0.42 |
| 18 | IPS | SUNmunLIVcryeve | 5.7 | 8.7 | -0.61 |
| 19 | HUL | MUNcovAVLchenew | 4.9 | 9.5 | -0.92 |
| 20 | COV | arsHULmciBHAnfo | 4.6 | 9.8 | -1.04 |
UPPERCASE is home, lowercase away. “Scores” and “concedes” are the goals our model expects across the whole run — so a club can have an easy set of fixtures for its forwards and a hard one for its defenders, which one blended difficulty number would hide.
Top projected points — first 15 gameweeks
GKP
- 1Raya ARS£6.0 · 60
- 2Kelleher BRE£5.0 · 57
- 3Lammens MUN£5.0 · 53
- 4Sels NFO£5.0 · 53
- 5Pope NEW£5.0 · 53
- 6Martinez AVL£5.0 · 52
- 7Leno FUL£4.5 · 52
- 8Verbruggen BHA£4.5 · 51
- 9Donnarumma MCI£5.5 · 51
- 10Henderson CRY£5.0 · 51
DEF
- 1Gabriel ARS£8.0 · 68
- 2Virgil LIV£6.5 · 64
- 3Truffert BOU£5.5 · 61
- 4Tarkowski EVE£6.0 · 61
- 5Botman NEW£5.0 · 54
- 6Muñoz CRY£5.5 · 53
- 7Gvardiol MCI£5.5 · 53
- 8Van den Berg BRE£5.0 · 53
- 9White ARS£5.5 · 53
- 10N.Williams NFO£5.0 · 52
MID
- 1B.Fernandes MUN£12.0 · 74
- 2Gibbs-White NFO£8.0 · 67
- 3E.Le Fée SUN£6.0 · 65
- 4Mbeumo MUN£8.0 · 65
- 5Tavernier BOU£6.0 · 62
- 6Szoboszlai LIV£7.0 · 62
- 7Wirtz LIV£7.5 · 60
- 8Stach LEE£6.0 · 59
- 9Palmer CHE£9.5 · 59
- 10O.Dango BRE£6.5 · 59
FWD
- 1Haaland MCI£15.5 · 75
- 2Watkins AVL£8.0 · 72
- 3Osula NEW£6.0 · 66
- 4Thiago BRE£8.0 · 61
- 5João Pedro CHE£7.5 · 61
- 6Isak LIV£9.0 · 60
- 7Gyökeres ARS£7.5 · 58
- 8Calvert-Lewin LEE£6.0 · 56
- 9Evanilson BOU£6.0 · 53
- 10Wood NFO£6.0 · 52
Ten per position, free. The full board, every player’s working, and what any of it means for YOUR fifteen comes with HQ Pro.
Still to come
A predicted final table — points, title odds, top four, relegation — needs all 38 gameweeks simulated rather than the 15 behind this page. It is being built; publishing a season prediction off a 15-gameweek run would be exactly the kind of number this site exists not to print.
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